Nov 27 Vote and Seat Projections
We’ve seen a bit of an increase for the NDP over the past couple weeks. Here are DemocraticSPACE’s latest seat projections: CONSERVATIVE — 39.1% (143 seats) LIBERAL — 26.6% (88 seats) NDP — 15.6% (32 seats) BLOC — 9.5% (45 seats) GREEN — 7.9% (0 seats) for complete details see http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2009/

Elizabeth May Leadership Term To Be Extended?
Disturbing news out of the Green Party: the GPC Campaign Committee has recommended to the party’s Federal Council that Elizabeth May’s leadership term be extended, from the constitutionally mandated 4 years (which would require a leadership vote by end of August 2010) to an open-ended “6 months after the next general election.” At issue is the uncertainty of the next federal election and the possibility it might coincide with the GPC’s leadership race. I’m frankly surprised the GPC would even consider doing this for several reasons… First, it sends a terrible message that the GPC leader is seeking to desperately hold onto power (whether th

What do the 4 federal by-elections tell us?
What do the 4 by-elections tell us? Generally, not much. The results are a mixed bag. The Conservatives, NDP and BQ can all point to positives (although not universally — while they improved in some places they went down in others), while there was no good news for the Greens and Liberals. Pundits and media like to see by-elections as tests of party momentum, but this is largely fiction, since the deciding factor in how people vote is so much less about party (as is the case in general elections, when o average 80-85% of votes are party votes) and more about the local candidate, how many resources ($ and people) are put into it, and how effectively each party’s on-the-

Latest Projections: Slight Dip for the Conservatives
cross-posted from the DemocraticSPACE 41st Canadian Election site New polls by Nanos and Ekos show a slight dip for the Conservatives. The latest aggregate polling between Oct 4-20 gives the following projections: CONSERVATIVE / 40.4% / 146 seats LIBERAL / 28.4% / 90 seats NDP / 14.2% / 28 seats BLOC / 9.1% / 44 seats GREEN / 6.8% / 0 seats

Democratic Reform Helps Conservative Majority
Correcting the under-representation of fast-growing provinces (ON, BC, AB) makes it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority government, because these are regions where the Conservatives are strongest. This move would change the electoral math in Canada, making it easier for the Conservatives to win a majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. An article a while back in the Globe & Mail summarizes one possible scenario for increasing the size of parliament. Under the Globe’s scenario, Ontario would gain 21 seats, BC 7 and Alberta 6. All othe