THE GREAT RECESSION

PICASSO´S VISION

THE MILLENIUM WAVE
We admit that of late our writings have had a rather dark tone but the World, certainly has  a number of severe long-term problems that we must deal with, and they’re going to serve up a lot of economic pain. Anyway today we want to look at some changes we are likely to see over the next few decades that can bring a bright future . As John Mauldin comments : “Some time next year, we are going to see the three-billionth person get access to the t

RISK IN SOVEREIGN BONDS
DUBAI is considering a delay in its debt payments, that would be the largest sovereign default since ARGENTINA 2001.It is shaking investor´s confidence across the Persian Gulf.The cost of protecting government notes from Abu Dhabi to Bahrain rose, extending the steepest increase since February as Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, sought a “standstill” agreement from creditors. Gulf region default swaps jumped, with contracts linked to Bahrain rising 32.5 basis points today t

WHAT IF… (II)
What if … As Albert Edwards, Societe Generale’s global strategist, sees the risks running quite the opposite of the consensus, which has a global recovery on track with a steadily falling dollar. Instead, he looks for a double-dip back into recession leading to a surging greenback, with a collapse of “the China economic bubble” resulting in a double whammy for commodity prices. He points to signs of doubts about the U.S. economic recovery, from the labor market remaining

CHINA´S BUBBLE
As Stephen Roach explained in his book ” The Next Asia” and Bill Gross declared yesterday in Bloomberg, China is facing a bubble of their own to confront. Gross : ” “It’s gearing up for export that doesn’t find an end consumer, that’s the real problem in China.” The “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles in global economies and markets is rising with the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates at record lows… The 

SPANISH BANKS: Reorganisation
In an interview with the Financial Times, Miguel Fernández Ordóñez, governor of the Bank of Spain, outlined plans for a series of mergers within months among the “cajas de ahorros”, regional savings and loans institutions. “I think there are at least 15 institutions that should merge with others,” he said. “I hope  next spring we have restructured all these institutions, that’s