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The winds of change…
While I was writing this article, Doc and I started discussing the importance of looking at the most recent performances from a defense instead of relying on the full season’s worth of data. In fantasy baseball, the danger is in placing too much importance in small sample sizes, but in fantasy football, I’d argue that the opposite is true — there’s at least as much if not more danger in relying on large sample sizes. The turnover rate of injuries, depth chart changes, and coaching adjustments mean that often, the last few games actually provide the clearest picture of a team’s relative strength on offense or defense. For example, the Giants pass defen

Statistical Strategery: Rushing To Your Defense
We’ve got a lot of questions to answer this week.  Will Julius Jones take away carries from Justin Forsett against the hapless Rams? Will Cedric Benson be ready to go against the horrid Cleveland defense or do we get some more Bernard Scott? Does Michael Turner have any chance to get in there against the sorry Tampa rush defense or do we get another good week out of Jason Snelling? Will Ricky Williams score 5 or just 4 touchdowns against the sad Bisons’ rush “defense.” We also have some Thanksgiving questions which we’ll find the answers to very soon.  Such as, can Marion Barber have a good game against a bad defense or is he just completely worthle

Statistical Strategery: Pass D Stats Please
So who do you want leading your fantasy team to glory this week? Ah, who cares.  Play all your Thanksgiving players; you know you wanna! Thankfully if you have some Packers you should give thanks for the Detroit Lions ineptitude on defense. Think of Ford Field as the New World and the Lions as the Native Americans and the Packers as the colonizers.  You might have mixed feelings about that metaphor, but I doubt you’ll feel too bad about starting your Packers! There are some easy matchups tomorrow, but you never know when your Aaron Rodgers will metamorphize into General Custer. Ok, I’ve been reading too much Sherman Alexie. Here are your matchups against passing defenses. 

Target(s) Practice
Brandon Gibson - Gibson was a guy on my list last week after receiving nine targets as a result of Burton’s season ending injury and now he is back on after receiving a monstrous 17 targets on Sunday.  Only Welker was targeted more often than Gibson though Welker did much more with his targets; he caught 15 passes for 192 yards compared to Gibson’s five catches for 61 yards.  However, despite Gibson’s touchdown drop which cost his team a chance at overtime, his sheer number of targets over the last two games has been staggering.  In fact, Gibson has amassed 26 targets over the past two games compared to teammate Donnie Avery who only has 14 targets in his last t

Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math, Crunch Time Edition
Did you see “The Wizard” with Fred Savage? It’s this cheesy early 90’s movie with a climactic Nintendo showdown. Mario Brothers III was unveiled at the end. It was like, the future or something. I remember being so pumped about that game. In fact if you weren’t pumped about Mario Brothers III then I hate your face. As I discussed last week “Sleeper Math” is changing with the season and will now focus on the best players to roster (mostly RB’s). It’s not easy to unearth diamonds in the rough this time of year but I’m up for the challenge. Waive goodbye to your backup Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and marginal Team Defenses and say hello to no name running backs who